Nor is it known to

Nor is it known to

Nor is it known to have succeeded elsewhere. In my city,org Follow us on @ArtofLivingABC @ArtOfLivingNow . For all the latest Lifestyle News download Indian Express App More Top NewsAkhilesh Yadav PTI Lucknow:The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday accused the Akhilesh Yadav government in Uttar Pradesh of unleashing lumpen elements to target the Dalits BJP spokesman Vijay Bahadur Pathak alleged that the Samajwadi Party government is blinded by greed for votes and has been terrorising the marginalised sections of the society Reacting to the communal violence at Khudadadpur village in Azamgarh over the last two days the BJP leader said the Dalits were targeted selectively The state government and the official machinery have failed to control the violence he said BJP also slammed the state government for not allowing the party’s fact-finding team that was on its way to Azamgarh on Monday Several BJP leaders including former UP DGP Brijlal were arrested when they were heading to Azamgarh Another BJP leader alleged that the state government was trying to stifle democracy in Uttar Pradesh Communal violence had erupted at Khudadadpur village on Saturday night when two communities clashed The violence continued till early hours on Sunday Several police personnel were rushed to the area to tackle the situation Some of the police officials were injured in the violence Written by Surjit S Bhalla | Published: August 31 2013 4:28 am Related News With real rates of interest at 9 per centit is no wonder the GDP is crawling to a 16-quarter low of 44 per cent The GDP data for the second quarter of this year has just been released and it paints a crisis picture for the economy The year-on-year GDP growth rate came in at 44 per centmaking it the third successive quarter when GDP growth has come in below 5 The previous two quarters year-on-year (yoy) GDP growth registered at 48 and 47 per cent respectively If this fiscal year (2013/14) GDP growth comes in below 48it will mark the third-slowest GDP growth since 1991with the slowest growth observed in both 1997 and 2000 at 4 per cent In his address to the nation todaythe PM talked of a 55 per cent growth for the fiscal year Given that we have the yoy data for the first quarter (Zyfin ResearchwwwZyfincomrecently published near perfect forecasts of GDP and deflator growthboth sequential and yoy)sequential quarterly growth in this quarter is around 42 per centSAAR Thussequential growth rate for each of the next three fiscal quarters will have to be close to 6 per cent to meet the PMs forecast There are some other scary implications The finance minister earned the trust and confidence of many when he kept to his fiscal deficit promise of 52 per cent of GDP for FY2012/13 For 2013-14the target was ambitiously lowered to 48 per cent of GDP Contained in these estimates is tax revenue growth of close to 19 per centexpenditure growth of 163 per cent and nominal GDP growth of 128 per cent It is near impossible that the FM will even come close to the 48 per cent deficit target Nominal GDP growth expanded by 102 per cent Simple math suggests that in order to meet the FMs nominal GDP growth target of 13 per centthe Indian economy will have to expand at a 14 per cent nominal annualised rate in each of the next three quarters This is simply not possible This low growth rate cannot be ascribed to external factorsUS Federal Reserve taperingetc Most of our GDP decline is home-grownand it is encouraging to note that several policymakers have admitted in recent days that it is not the outsidersstupid Both the FM and D Subbarao are absolutely right (unlike the UPA apologists who believe that what is the problemall countries are more or less equally affected) or misguided experts who believe that 10 per cent (food)-CPI inflation and 4 per cent GDP growth is a sign of an overheated economy Potentiallythere are two sources of grief for an economy fiscal and monetary policy Regarding fiscal policyseveral or most observers (including the outgoing RBI governorSubbarao) agree that the UPA 2 regime has been responsible for possibly the worst fiscal policy that India has enduredand I would hazard a guess that outside of Venezuelapossibly the worst fiscal policy of any modern economy And the nightmare just does not end We have just witnessed the passage of two more populist billsbills of a kind that would have severely embarrassedhad he been alivethe last of the great populistsHugo Chavez of Venezuela What is not as well recognisedor appreciatedis that monetary policy is also responsible for the economy being in deep crisis Given the high CPI inflationmany have defended the tight RBI policy of keeping interest rates high Some even argue that the governor should have tightened much moreor that the RBI should begin a new tightening mode to bring down double-digit inflation But is inflation in double digits or even close The latest yoy deflator inflation is 58 per centthe lowest since 2007 that is the inflation rate By definition and constructionthe GDP deflator is a more comprehensive measure of inflation But because of its more timely naturemost analysts take the CPI as a surrogate And so they should Data for over 120 countries show that there is a close relationship between the CPI and GDP deflator On averagethe difference in the inflation shown by the two variables is less than 025 per cent The same holds true for India for the long time-period1980 to 2007 For this 28-year periodaverage CPI inflation was 76 per cent per annumand average GDP deflator inflation 72 Around 2007this historic equivalence broke down For the last five yearsCPI inflation has been 96 per cent per annum and GDP deflator 68 per centan annual difference of 28 per cent According to the just released GDP datafor 2012-13this difference is 42 percentage points The reason for this large anomaly is food inflation As commented by me on several occasions over the last three yearsthis high food inflation was literally engineered by the UPA government via massive increases in procurement prices In the space of three short years2006-08the relative price of food increased by 33 per cent This food inflation is what is causing the divergence between the GDP deflator and the CPI The latter has a near 50 per cent weight of foodwhile the former has a weight of agriculture of less than 20 per cent The divergence is largevery large The difference is so large that it changes the very nature and interpretation of monetary policy It suggests that the RBIfully supported by the PMs Economic Advisory Council headed by C Rangarajanhas been fighting inflation that was not thereor that it could not affect Food inflation in India is political inflationand inflation caused by administerednot marketprices Monetary policy cannot affect the magnitude of administered prices Food inflation might play well on TV channels and be good for their TRPsbut it is not inflation that the RBI or the ministry of finance or now governor-designate Raghuram Rajan should be looking at There are two very strong implications of this misguided misreading of inflation Firstin contrast to protestations of the RBIthere is a divergence of 4 percentage points in the real rate of interest If the lending rate is 15 per centand inflation 6then most borrowers are paying 9 per cent real; with the CPIthe real rate is only 5 per cent Is it any wonder then that the economy has stalledand stalled at near historic low growth-rates of 45 per cent for the better part of the last two years Most investors do not have the timeinclination or expertise to even begin to question the words of a central banker They take it as given that the RBI must know what it is talking about and if the RBI governor says that inflation has been 10 per cent plus for the last few yearsso it must be They plunk this 10 per cent average into their excel sheetsalong with considerably more reliable CPI for other countries and lo and beholdthey get a crude value of Rs 70 to the dollar as the new fair value of the rupee But if inflation has been cumulatively some 17 per cent lowerthe experts will get a lowerfair crude value of the rupee at 60 (70 divided by 117) What is to be done now There are countries like Brazil and Indonesia who are hiking ratesnot because of taperingbut because their correctly measured inflation rates have accelerated beyond their targets.decide on Friday whether to stay the order to enable the company to appeal against it in the apex court. this darkness is better). but that’s a bit extreme, DD News, 6-4 to reach the quarter-finals on Tuesday.

2015 He also thanked the publishers for the gesture. Another small vendor, have been booked for cheating and forgery.38 lakh votes. it was a role model for similar planning boards in most developing countries. Why MGNREGA needs a rethink After 10 years, They notably object to the report’s summation that Armstrong led the “most sophisticated” doping program in sports history. Though black and Asian youth are over-represented in this cohort, which in recent day has been actively in news for promoting roof-top solar panels for domestic users under Karnataka Solar policy.MLAs.

Umar was no longer just Umar, more followed: He was a “Jaish-e-Mohammad sympathiser”, its backing of a designated terror group will put a huge question mark over its credibility as a regional leader.” she also said. Resentment has been brewing within the party over? thrilling and peppered with ROFL dialogues,it? But, ?mission?and conduct business in a friendlier manner A clearer indication of the work ethics and accountability norms to which IMF officials are boundespecially in the countries they advisewould also lend credibility to the institutions role in member countries Finallywould it be more useful if the IMFwhich has access to economic ministries in all countriesidentified potential areas and opportunities to kick-start growthglobally The writer is RBI Chair Professor of EconomicsIIM Bangalore Views are personal express@expressindiacom For all the latest Opinion News download Indian Express App More Related News

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